In one week I am flying out of Copenhagen to Tulsa to start my much longed for chasecation. As mentioned, I will be chasing with David Williams and his Tornado Alley Chasing together with my fellow Swede Pär/Alex and a czech woman named Iva. As of mid May the Plains have been very active and I read a tweet the other day that there is currently a record streak of consecutive days of tornadoes!
Considering my own chasecation, I don’t know if this is good news or not. I don’t know if there is a correlation of tornadoes before and tornadoes later on, that is. Will a May full of tornadoes mean that it will be a great season in June as well? I believe the correlation is very weak – every week is a new week, pretty much.
Emotionally, this is difficult as well. It would be tough to arrive just after a great period if we don’t see anything. Last year, May had been super slow and that trend pretty much continued when I was chasing as well, except for the magnificent Cope, CO, day! No matter what, if we see tornadoes in June it won’t matter at all if the season before or after is great. I am also glad I have been dedicated to these dates since Day 1.
The bad news: I did look at the 200 mb and it does look like I will arrive at the start of a ridge, i.e. down days, which sucks. It is still a week ahead and forecasting that far into the future is not very reliable.
The good news: Scrolling ahead, it seems like the second half of my chasecation might be active as the ridge appears to be replaced by a trough. Now we are talking 2 weeks into the future, so a WHOLE lot can change.
200mb loop over pretty much the extent of my chasecation
So, I am slightly on the edge. I don’t care about a few down days IF the rest of the chasecation will have us chasing tornadic storms but I really don’t feel like having another 2013 or 2014 (my worst seasons ever). No matter what, I am REALLY looking forward to just come over and chase, photograph and catch up with David and Alex!
Lastly, one of the reasons I love chasing is that I love the unique nature experience. The other day we had three blue tits fresh from the nest visiting us in the garden for a day. They were peeping, trying to fly, and were fed by their mom once in a while. It was such an amazing experience seeing those cute little birds from such a close distance, especially when one flew up to me and jumped up to my shoulder.
What day does your chase start? I am chasing starting the 8th of June for 1 week. Would be grateful if you could help manage my expectations. Does it look like the whole week will be quiet or…?
I feel stupid for writing this but: I don’t know. This close to my chasecation I actually try to stay ignorant to how the weather setup is mainly because I have realized it doesn’t benefit me to know. If I know the weather setup looks really bad, it removes some of the excitement I feel about going and I want to feel excited when I board my plane. If the weather setup looks amazing, it will off course be exciting but also a bit stressful as I won’t know if I will get there in time…so, I try to stay ignorant until I land, but I will post an update when I do!
Thanks , I appreciate that. Are there any information sources you recommend that gives a plain English version of the convective outlook?
I realized I never responded to this comment so, if at least not for others who wonder the same in the future. I use https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ among many sources to check the outlook of the upcoming days and I would say SPC is the easiest to interpret but I know that it is not all that easy to understand if you are a beginner (which most tour guests are).
Some chasers tend to explain the upcoming weather in manners that are easier to understand but I know of no one who does that on a regular basis or a website where you can understand the outlook any better.